Equity Derivatives

Binary Option

Also known as: Digital option, All-or-nothing option, Fixed-return option

Pays a fixed amount if a condition is met and nothing otherwise. A legitimate institutional building block, and — in its retail form — a product banned across most of the developed world.

4 min read · 818 words

Asset class
Equity derivatives (digital payoff)
Instrument type
All-or-nothing option
Traded
OTC institutional; retail versions banned in the EU and UK
Typical users
Structurers and hedgers; formerly retail speculators
Stylised payoff at expiry (not to scale).
KDigital callSpot at expiryPayoff
1 · SnapshotThe one idea to remember
Key intuition: a binary option pays a fixed amount or nothing, so its price is essentially the probability of the event. When a retail platform offers less than that probability implies, the negative expected value is arithmetic, not opinion.
2 · BeginnerWhat is it, really?

A binary option has one of the simplest payoffs in finance: if the underlying is above the strike at expiry, it pays a fixed amount; otherwise it pays nothing. No proportionality, no partial outcome.

That simplicity has two very different lives:

  • Institutionally it is a useful building block — a clean way to express "the probability of X" and a component inside many structured payoffs. It is legitimate, priced properly, and traded between professionals.
  • In its retail form it became a product sold on websites with 60-second expiries and payouts that guaranteed the seller a margin. It has been banned for retail clients in the EU and UK and restricted in many other jurisdictions.

This page covers both, because understanding why the maths is unarguable is the best possible protection against the second version.

3 · IntermediateHow it works in practice

The price is a probability

Under Black–Scholes, a cash-or-nothing call paying 1 is worth the discounted risk-neutral probability of finishing in the money:

$$ C_{\text{digital}} = e^{-rT} N(d_2) \qquad d_2 = \frac{\ln(S/K) + (r - \sigma^2/2)T}{\sigma\sqrt{T}} $$
  • This is exactly the N(d₂) computed by the probability-of-expiring-in-the-money tool. A binary option is that number, made tradeable.
  • At the money with a short expiry, N(d₂) is close to 0.5. A fair coin flip should therefore cost about half the payout — and pay roughly double the stake.

Why the retail version could not work

Platform termsFair termsConsequence
Win: +80% of stakeWin: +100%Expected value ≈ −10% per trade
Lose: −100% of stakeLose: −100%

At a genuine 50% win probability, staking 100 to win 80 or lose 100 has an expected value of 0.5 × 80 − 0.5 × 100 = −10 per trade. Trading it repeatedly converges on ruin with mathematical certainty — a worse edge than most casino games, and the reason regulators treated it as a product-design problem rather than a disclosure problem.

Worked example: a 60-second at-the-money binary with an 85% payout. Break-even needs a win rate of 100/185 ≈ 54.1%. Over one minute, price movement is essentially unforecastable, so the realistic win rate is about 50% before costs — and the 4-point gap is the platform's margin, taken on every trade.
4 · AdvancedPricing & valuation

The hedging problem: a discontinuous payoff

The reason binaries are genuinely difficult instruments has nothing to do with their retail history. The payoff jumps at the strike, so the Greeks explode there:

  • Delta becomes unbounded as expiry approaches with spot at the strike — an infinitesimal price move flips the payoff between everything and nothing. No finite hedge exists.
  • Dealers hedge with a call spread instead. Buying a call at K−ε and selling at K+ε replicates the binary with a payoff that is steep but continuous, and finite to hedge. The tighter the spread, the closer the replication and the larger the position — this is the real trade-off, and it is why quoted binaries always carry a spread over theoretical value.
  • Pin risk is the same problem at expiry: with spot sitting exactly at the strike, the payoff is genuinely undetermined until the settlement print. Desks manage it by unwinding early rather than by modelling it.
$$ \text{Binary} \approx \lim_{\varepsilon \to 0} \frac{C(K-\varepsilon) - C(K+\varepsilon)}{2\varepsilon} \;=\; -\frac{\partial C}{\partial K} $$

The binary is the negative derivative of the call price with respect to strike — which is another way of saying it is the risk-neutral probability density's cumulative value, and the cleanest statement of why its price is a probability.

Where binaries legitimately appear

  • Inside structured products. Every fixed coupon paid conditionally — an autocallable's coupon barrier, a reverse convertible's knock-in — is a digital in disguise.
  • FX digitals are a standard institutional market, used to express event views around central-bank meetings.
  • Range accruals and one-touch structures are families of digitals across time rather than at a single date.
  • Regulated event contracts on some exchanges are binaries with transparent pricing and a real order book — the same payoff, in a venue where the price is set by participants rather than by the counterparty taking the other side.

The regulatory record, briefly

Retail binary options were prohibited for retail clients in the EU and UK from 2018–19 after regulators documented widespread losses, price manipulation on unregulated platforms, and refusal to process withdrawals. Several jurisdictions followed. The prohibition targeted the retail distribution model; the instrument itself remains a normal part of derivatives markets, which is the distinction worth carrying away.

The formulas above are standard textbook formulations, simplified for teaching. They explain the mechanism — they are not a valuation tool, and they will not reproduce a dealer’s price.

5 · Desk notesHow practitioners think about it
Practitioner note: whenever a payoff is fixed and conditional, price the condition. If the offered payout is below what the probability justifies, the negative expectation is arithmetic — and no amount of chart-reading changes an expected value that is set before the trade opens.