How many moves are priced in calculator

The arithmetic behind "markets expect".

Interactive: how many moves are priced inMedium

Current policy rate % Forward rate % Standard move (bp) Months to that forward

Total priced: —
In standard moves: —
Reading: —
Per meeting, roughly: —
Stance priced: —
Health warning: —

This is the arithmetic behind every "markets expect" headline. Pair it with the forward-rate calculator to get the forward from two curve points first. Note what the number is not: a probability distribution. "Two cuts priced" is equally consistent with certainty of two cuts and a coin flip between none and four.

The idea behind it

This calculator belongs to Central Banks & Monetary Policy, where the mechanism it computes is explained step by step, with the formula, what each input means and where the simple model stops being right. Everything is computed in your browser; nothing you type is sent anywhere.

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Taylor rule policy rate — the benchmark every committee is measured against.

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Not advice. This explains how something works; it is not a recommendation, and nothing here is tailored to you. You can lose everything you put in — with leveraged instruments, considerably more. StrikeAndYield is not a regulated firm and provides no financial services.

The same in full — six points, and why each one matters

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Nothing here is tailored to you. This is written for a general audience. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, knowledge, time horizon or tolerance for loss.
The examples are simplified. Worked examples use round numbers and leave out costs, spreads, taxes, collateral, settlement and market conventions that materially change real outcomes.
The models are teaching models. Formulas shown are standard textbook formulations. Institutions add calibration, live market data and credit, funding and capital adjustments — nothing here will reproduce a dealer’s quote or produce a valuation you can rely on.
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