What Time Does to a PositionMedium
Every instrument has a clock in it. On some the clock pays you, on some it charges you, and on a few it does both at different points in the same year.
4 min read · 710 words · Updated
The question
- Most analysis asks what happens if the price moves. The other question is what happens if it does not move for a month, and the answers differ more between instruments than the first question does.
- Five distinct effects go under the loose word "time". They are not variations of one thing: they come from different clauses, they run in different directions, and an instrument can carry more than one.
The five clocks
| Effect | What happens with no market move | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Decay | An option loses value as expiry approaches | Less time for the price to travel |
| Roll | A futures position gains or loses at each roll | The shape of the forward curve |
| Pull to par | A bond's price converges on face value | The redemption clause |
| Reinvestment | Coupons and dividends land and must go somewhere | Payments arriving before maturity |
| Compounding drag | A reset product falls behind its multiple | Resetting exposure after each move |
Reading each one
- Decay is not linear. It accelerates as expiry approaches and it is concentrated near the strike, which is why a position that was patient for two months can lose most of its remaining value in the last two weeks. Volatility is the other half of the same pricing.
- Roll is the effect people meet without knowing its name. A commodity or volatility position held through several expiries pays or receives the difference between the expiring and the next contract each time. Over a year that can dominate the price move entirely. Futures is the instrument; the shape of the curve decides the sign.
- Pull to par is the one clock that is contractual and certain. A bond bought at 105 will be worth 100 at maturity, whatever happens in between — see why a bond trades above 100. It is the reason yield to maturity and coupon differ.
- Reinvestment is the assumption hiding inside every quoted yield. Money that arrives has to be put somewhere, at rates nobody knows yet. It is why a yield to maturity is exact and its realisation is not.
- Compounding drag applies to anything that resets a ratio on a schedule. It is arithmetic, not a fee, and it is set out in full on why a leveraged ETF loses over time.
Which instruments carry which
- An option: decay, and nothing else. Time is the whole of what you are paying for.
- A bond held to maturity: pull to par and reinvestment, in opposite directions. If rates fall the price rises and the coupons reinvest worse; if rates rise the reverse. That partial cancellation has a name — duration matching — and it is the basis of most liability-driven investing.
- A rolled futures position: roll, and no decay at all. People often describe it as decaying, which conflates two mechanisms with different causes.
- A share: no clock of its own. This is the honest answer and it is unusual — most instruments on this site have one.
- A structured note: often three at once. A barrier product with a fixed maturity carries decay on its embedded option, pull to par on its bond component, and a payoff that depends on where the price is on a specific date. The reverse convertible is the clearest example.
The two-minute exercise
- Set the market move to zero and step forward a month. Whatever changes is the clock, and it is the part that is knowable in advance.
- Ask who is on the other side of that clock. Decay paid by an option buyer is decay received by the writer. Roll cost paid by a long is roll yield received by somebody else. None of these effects destroys value; they move it, on a schedule.
- Then ask whether the position needs to be right quickly. An instrument with a clock against it converts "eventually correct" into "wrong", and that conversion is the single most common way a good view loses money.
Check yourself
Three questions on this page. Your answers stay in this browser and feed the learning record; one you keep missing comes back in the weak-spot drill.
Which of the five clocks does the page call contractual and certain?
Show the answer
Pull to par. A bond's redemption clause fixes its value at maturity, so a bond bought at 105 will be worth 100 then, whatever happens in between.
Which clock does a rolled futures position carry?
Show the answer
Roll, and no decay. At each roll the position pays or receives the difference between the expiring and next contract, set by the curve's shape; calling it decay confuses two mechanisms.
Why does the page say none of these time effects destroys value?
Show the answer
What one holder pays, the other side receives. Decay paid by an option buyer is received by the writer, and roll cost paid by a long is roll yield to somebody else; the clock moves value on a schedule.
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